The prospect of a scorching summer heatwave surpassing 38 degrees in our future is a stark reminder of the escalating climate crisis. While our hottest summer on record occurred in 2025, it was not as extreme as the memorable summers of 1976 and 1995. However, the recent trend of warm nights has pushed the average temperature into record-breaking territory, as confirmed by Met Éireann. This trend is not merely a statistical anomaly but a tangible manifestation of climate change's transformative power. Climate change has the ability to turn previously unremarkable years into record-breaking ones, as baseline conditions steadily rise. Moreover, it can turn what would have been remarkable in the past, like the summer of 1976, into even more extreme events. That summer was extraordinary for Ireland, lasting 14 days with temperatures over 25 degrees every day. The implications of such extreme weather events are far-reaching, affecting agriculture, water supplies, and productivity. Climate change introduces a new dynamic into the weather pattern, altering our expectations of 'business as usual'. Globally, we are at more than 1.4 degrees above the average temperature in the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900. By 2056, a child born during the long, hot summer of 1976 will be 80. What would happen if we experienced a similar weather event in a world that is more than 2.5 degrees hotter than the pre-industrial average? New modelling by Professor Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading and the Co-Centre for Climate + Biodiversity + Water, in collaboration with the UK Met Office, explores this scenario. The model predicts temperatures in June 2056 would top 38 degrees in Ireland, a figure that dwarfs the highest temperature ever recorded in Ireland (33.3 degrees in 1887) and the highest temperature experienced this century (33 degrees in Dublin in 2022). This raises a deeper question: what would happen if we got a run of unusual weather in a world that is more than 2.2 degrees hotter than 1976? The implications of days over 38 degrees for our roads, railways, animal welfare, our own health, wildfires, water availability, and the functioning of our houses need to be imagined. We have to imagine it, because we can avert it if we act in time. However, our current path is fraught with challenges. Ireland will not meet its climate action target of a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 51% by 2030. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that we will manage half of that reduction at best if we achieve everything in all of our climate action policies and plans. Our continued reliance on fossil fuels puts us in this precarious position. Climate change is a global problem requiring globally coordinated action. If a well-resourced and well-informed country like Ireland cannot reduce its greenhouse gas emissions according to our international obligations, then how can we expect other countries with bigger problems than ours to do so? When we are committed to change, big things can and do happen. It requires real political leadership as well as public commitment. Even with concerted action, we will still be living in a world where we are at least 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial average, making record-breaking summers a regular occurrence. We will need to adapt to this new normal, but every fraction of a degree that we can claw back matters for dialling down the extremes. On our current path, that child born in the summer of 1976 will be in an equally vulnerable age group in 2056 and facing days of extreme heat in a country and infrastructure not equipped to shield us. This is not just a distant possibility but a looming reality. The implications of such extreme weather events are profound and far-reaching, affecting not only our physical environment but also our social and economic fabric. As Professor Yvonne Buckley, co-director of the Co-Centre for Climate + Biodiversity + Water and Professor of Zoology at Trinity College Dublin, aptly puts it, we must imagine the implications of days over 38 degrees, because we can avert it if we act in time. In my opinion, the key to averting this looming crisis lies in our collective commitment to change. It is not just about meeting targets or adhering to international obligations; it is about ensuring a livable future for generations to come. The challenge is immense, but so is our capacity for innovation and resilience. As we navigate the complexities of climate change, we must remember that every fraction of a degree matters. Every action, no matter how small, can contribute to a cooler, more sustainable future. In my view, the future of our planet depends on our ability to come together and take bold, decisive action. Only then can we hope to claw back the fractions of a degree that will determine our fate.
